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Simple mnemonic device for Bayesian inference:

The odds are 99:1 against the patient having the disease. (99 out of 100 that he doesn’t have it)

When the test comes back positive, that is a 1:9 event (1 out of 10)

Combine the two pieces of evidence by multiplying the numbers on each side: the updated odds are (99*1) : (1*9) =99:9, or 11:1 that the patient doesn’t have the disease.

/volume1/synshare/web/ · Last modified: 2017/01/13 10:20 (external edit)